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Introduction: How to reason

Section 5: Cause and correlation

Examine your evidence carefully before deciding that one event or phenomenon is the cause of another.

Let us say that men who are depressed work long hours. What is the connexion between these two facts?

a. Do they work long hours because they are depressed and want to escape their depression? Or they are depressed because they work long hours?

If either one of these analyses is correct - depression leads to working long hours or working long hours leads to depression - they are linked by cause and effect.

b. Neither analysis is correct and a third factor is responsible: genes, upbringing, an unhappy marriage or something else leads men to be both depressed and to work hard. In that case, there is a correlation between work hours and depression.

c. There is no connexion at all. Further research shows that some men who are depressed work long hours, others work normal hours and a third group does not work at all. Meanwhile, many men who work long hours are very happy because their job gives them fulfilment. In this case there is neither cause nor correlation between long working hours and depression.

Whenever we come across facts that appear to be related we have a tendency to link them together. This is not surprising. Our survival thousands of years ago depended on our ability to make connexions. We know that lions roar and hungry lions may attack us. A roar in the forest could be caused by a lion hunting us. It makes more sense to run than to assume no connexion.

But cause and effect are not always straightforward. Does it rain to make the grass grow, or does the grass grow because it rains?

How about this? The doctors said my aunt was dying and I prayed to Jesus to make her well. Jesus caused her to become well again. Or was it the drugs that saved her? Or was it that her body was stronger than we suspected and it recovered on her own?

And what about the Big Question: must everything have a cause? If I only exist


How good is your reasoning?

Can you distinguish lies from truth? Or a good argument from a false one? Can you when tell someone is trying to pull the wool over your eyes?

We keep physically fit by exercising regularly and eating healthy
food. The same is true of our minds - we need regular mental exercise and a good diet of solid facts and logic.

This chapter offers basic reasoning skills to help you understand the contradictions that lie at the heart of all religion.

0.1: Basic principles
Start at the beginning

0.2: What do we know?
Separate fact from fiction

0.3: Start with the question ...
... not with the answer

0.4: All the evidence ...
... not just some of it

0.5: Cause and correlation
They're not the same

0.6: Don't jump to conclusions ...
... or you could land in the ...

0.7: No way
Proving a negative

0.8: Occam's Razor
The simplest solution

0.9: Facts, knowledge and science
What we know and how we know it

0.10: Know or believe?
The impossibility of God

0.11: Reason and faith
Understanding the difference

0.12: Summary




Finished the introduction? Move on to

Chapter 1
Defining God


Does God exist? Before we try to answer that question we need to have a clear idea of who or what God is. How do we describe God? What versions of God are on offer?



Not sure what you're looking for?

If there's a word that you don't recognize, it might be defined here.

If there's a topic you're looking for, check one of the Search boxes on this page.

If there's something you want to ask, send an e-mail. We can't guarantee an answer, but we'll do our best.
because my parents mated and they only exist because their parents did the same; and if the human race only existed because it evolved from other primates and they evolved over billennia from single-celled organisms and if these organisms were the result of the conditions on a primeval earth that came into being as an eventual result of the Big Bang, what caused that Big Bang? God? And if God was the cause of the Big Bang, what was the cause of God? (To take that argument further, read here.)

Be careful of cause and effect and of correlation and be prepared to accept that in some circumstances there may no connexion between phenomena at all. Always test your hypotheses and look at alternative possibilities before coming to a conclusion - particularly the conclusion that God is the cause of all...


Next: Introduction: Section 6
Don't jump to conclusions ...


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If God existed, he would...

admire the beauty of a universe that he did not create

recognize that eternity is meaningless

deny both heaven and hell

disown all men and women who speak in his name

denounce the harm caused by religious "morality"

help the human race to thrive without him

If God existed, he would be an atheist.



What is the difference between science and faith?

science is certain of nothing and requires proof of everything

faith is certain of everything and requires proof of nothing

Which do you trust?


"I know there is no God"
or
"I believe there is no God"
???


Check the answer





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